How selection bias will skew your activity mailing results

Here’s an interesting thing that I came across when evaluating a mailing for a client that I need to share.

Fallacy01

The observation

So what we’re looking at here is the revenue for a given group of customers from 06/2014 to 12/2014. (Note that the data presented here is completely fictional recreated in a spreadsheet, but follows patterns similar to the original data. See below for more details.)

This group of customers had been selected due to its inactivity as defined by the revenue in 06/2014 being smaller then a certain threshold (again, the actual selection was a lot more refined that is described in this model).…

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